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We’re almost healed!
After reaching a “fever pitch in 2004 – 2005 “real estate” was rushed to the hospital, underwent emergency surgery, and is now well into its “recovery” phase. Having visited many specialists to receive a diagnosis’ for its problems, as it had been suffering from a multitude of symptoms; the treatments included surgery, rehabilitation, a slow process, ending in full recovery. Homebuyer’s were credited with discovering “real estate’s” major problem, price overheating, however, as a result of “stronger scrutiny, many other “ailments” have been uncovered, and the cures will take time.
Let us review. After reaching its “explosive stage,” during surgery real estate was sliced right down the middle…vertically. Now, anyone who has gone through surgery knows that healing and hurting take time, patience, and endurance. When one has received a “wound in the ‘gut,’” one has to remember not to apply pressure to the area too soon, with one fear being tearing out a stitch.
I guess, “Phase 1 post surgery” is “anesthesia recuperation.” Awakening one feels groggy, phases in and out of “consciousness,” calls for pain relief, and hopes to go “back to sleep until morning.” (Heh, it seems that a lot of seller’s are stuck in Phase 1, waiting for morning!)
“Phase 2, recuperation and relapse,” begins with listening to your physician and taking a good assessment of your condition. Understanding your situation, (condition), allows you to plan your downtime accepting and tolerant of what is ahead. (No one said easy)
Pain always accompanies Phase 2 and it appears that it will last, in real estate’s case, until full recovery in 2015. (Wow, that must have been some surgery, a 10-year recovery? Well, dah, yes, it took 15 years for the wound to fester.) Now recuperation is a convalescence period and one can only expect real estate’s physical strength to return slowly. Relapses are possible.
“Phase 3, improvement” the only way to recover is day by day. 2008 appears to be the low point. Improvement will become noticeable in 2009 – 2010. We can look forward to home appreciation, improvement, of 1% - 3%. Improving 3%...means that you are now at 73% of the strength you once had when one is recovering from a 30% reduction in “strength.” As previously stated, improvement will take time, day by day, year by year, thru 2015.
So, we can see, real estate is improving, we are closer to getting better…just take a breath, and hope that we do not relapse as a result of rising interest rates.
Real Estate Everyday www.realestatephd.com
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